Is Jonas Vingegaard ready to beat Tadej Pogačar and go from Giro to hero at the Tour de France?
Jonas Vingegaard's Giro-Tour double mission is an intriguing prospect, and the question on everyone's mind is whether he can overcome the challenges of the Giro d'Italia and emerge victorious at the Tour de France. With a comfortable GC victory at the Giro, Vingegaard is now turning his attention to the Tour, aiming to become just the ninth man to win both races in the same year.
The Giro Dominance
Vingegaard's performance at the Giro was nothing short of remarkable. He dominated the mountain stages, winning five out of six, and sealed the maglia rosa with a comfortable lead over Felix Gall. This victory marks only the eighth time in history that a rider has won all three Grand Tours, and Vingegaard is now targeting even more history at the Tour.
The Eternal Rivalry
The key to Vingegaard's success will be his ability to overcome his eternal rival, Tadej Pogačar. Pogačar, seeking a joint-record fifth yellow jersey, will be a formidable opponent. In 2025, Pogačar won four stages and beat Vingegaard by 4:24, and the pair's head-to-head record stands at 3-4 in Pogačar's favor. This year, with just over four weeks until the Tour begins, the question is whether Vingegaard can reduce this deficit.
The Challenge of the Giro-Tour Double
Conventional wisdom suggests that riding the Giro d'Italia is a significant challenge for a GC rider, as it can leave them fatigued for the Tour de France. History supports this, with it taking 26 years for a rider to last claim the Giro-Tour double. However, Vingegaard has reasons to believe he can overcome this challenge.
The Benefits of the Vuelta a España
Vingegaard's previous experiences in the Vuelta a España after the Tour have been beneficial. In 2025, he won the Spanish race, and in 2023, he was the best rider, despite the gap of four to five weeks between the races. This suggests that the Giro-Tour double is not an insurmountable task.
The Importance of the Giro
The Giro was not a serious test for Vingegaard, as he was only riding at 90% of his full capacity. This is supported by Visma's head of performance, Mathieu Heijboer, who believes that Vingegaard could have gone deeper at the Giro. The key for Vingegaard is that he was never pushed to the limit, allowing him to conserve energy for the Tour.
The Impact of the Accident
Vingegaard's accident in the Itzulia Basque Country two springs ago was a significant setback. He suffered multiple injuries and feared for his life. However, he made a remarkable recovery, finishing second at the Tour and then winning the Vuelta. Visma's medical and coaching staff believed that Vingegaard wouldn't fully recover until the 2026 season, and the Giro suggests that this process is now bearing fruit.
The Coaching Change
Vingegaard's coaching change from Tim Heemskerk to Mathieu Heijboer has been a significant development. While Heemskerk was a highly regarded coach, Heijboer brings a fresh perspective and a focus on pushing Vingegaard to new levels. This change has been welcomed by the team, and Plugge believes that it will not hurt Vingegaard's preparation for the Tour.
The Impact of Niermann's Departure
The departure of Grischa Niermann, the team's head of racing, is another change that could impact the team's dynamics. However, Plugge believes that the team has a ready-made successor in Marc Reef, who will replace Niermann at the Tour. This change is expected to have a minimal impact on Vingegaard's preparation.
The Time Trial Challenge
Vingegaard's time-trialling performances have been a concern, with Pogačar and Evenepoel excelling in this discipline. Vingegaard's weight and power output on the flat make him at a disadvantage compared to his rivals. However, the Tour's time trial includes a significant climb, which could play to Vingegaard's strengths.
The Bonus Seconds
Bonus seconds could play a crucial role in the Tour, and Visma is aware of this challenge. They tried to pay more attention to this last year, and Vingegaard was significantly more explosive compared to previous years. However, Pogačar has a significant advantage in this area, and Visma must find a balance between Vingegaard's other characteristics and his ability to climb at a high level.
The Future of the Tour
The 2026 Tour de France promises to be a closely fought battle between Pogačar and Vingegaard. With Vingegaard in better shape than ever, the question is whether he can overcome the challenges of the Giro-Tour double and emerge as the Tour champion. The future of the Tour is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the race will be an exciting spectacle, with the potential for a new hero to emerge.
